Do children have “Bayesian intuitions”, so the ability to correctly determine posterior probabilities without knowing Bayes theorem? Central hypothesis: Bayesian thinking does not depend primarily on abstract mathematics, but rather on the alignment between cognitive abilities and the way the problem is framed. Children are capable of Bayesian thinking Even second graders can solve: 22–32% of the problems correctly using icon arrays Fourth graders: 50–60% correct Surprising result: Dyscalculia 50% correct using icon arrays → similar performance to typical…
Do children have Bayesian intuitions?
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There is nothing new under the Sun. Why wouldn't they have if basically everyone has this type of intuition? It's simple cause and effect. Kid sees a broken glass on the floor -> thinks that the glass fell over. It's a silly way to present anything, because it presumes that basic intuition is this isolated thing that exists in a vacuum with zero awareness of basic natural laws. You don't need a theory of gravity to know that things fall. You don't to know the Bayes' Theorem to know that everything has some sort of cause. It's utterly deranged to even think the opposite. The limiter here isn't "correct thought" - the absence of which is schizophrenia, that is, a mental illness - but simple data processing capabilities. Rationality is a function of the lizard brain. Animals seem irrational because they have a limited information processing capability, and not because, uhh, they instinctively "believe" in some sort of acausal nature of existence.
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